The cars you should buy between now and 2030

A popular industry view is that Euro 6 (enforced since 2015) has already reduced toxic exhaust emissions to such low levels that any next step will contribute little more. Both Renault boss Luca de Meo and Audi chief Markus Duesmann are on record as suggesting Euro 7 is a huge technical challenge with little benefit for the environment.

Some commentators have suggested that the new Euro 7 proposals will require so much more on-board technology that they could double the manufactured cost of an engine. The European authorities argue that their sole objective of making such a move is to reduce pollution, but an opposing view is that the new standard is really a means of ‘encouraging’ straggling car makers to embrace EVs wholesale. It’s certainly likely that model ranges of conventional cars will be radically trimmed beyond 2025.

The arrival of Euro 7 plus the steadily falling cost of EV drive batteries suggest that the prices of equivalent ICE and electric cars – the Volkswagen Golf and the Volkswagen ID 3, for example – will cross over in four years’ time or perhaps even a little sooner, with the EV thereafter having the price advantage.

The change to EVs is irrevocable, but the ways that individual car buyers choose to adapt can still be very different. So here are our four approaches.

Strategy one

For: There’s already a very good selection of electric cars available, and some of them are into their second or even third generation so are proven products. The Nissan Leaf is a good example: at 10 years old, it has both greatly increased its performance and nearly doubled its cruising range (in the biggest-battery model) since its launch. The choice of size and style gets wider all the time, and the world’s biggest automotive names are now involved. Most EVs have at least a three-year mechanical warranty plus more like eight years’ cover on the battery, and their residual values are extremely strong and likely to remain so.

Against: The advance of EVs will continue at breakneck speed, with lithium ion batteries’ energy density likely to improve further (a 5-10% improvement per year is often suggested). There’s also a suggestion from those deeply involved in the research that the long-awaited solid-state battery could emerge lighter, smaller and more powerful in the mid-2020s. The hedge against this is to get an EV via PCP or PCH and then step lightly into a more advanced EV later. Other disadvantages? The availability of public charging is still an issue and convergence of payment methods is needed for newcomers to EVs to have true peace of mind.

Cars to consider

Tesla Model 3: The best and most affordable Tesla so far, which grants you access to the firm’s excellent Supercharger rapid-charging network. It’s at its best in Long Range guise.

Hyundai Kona Electric: This electric crossover offers a long range (particularly in 64kWh form) and a five-year warranty – not that it needs it, being famed for reliability and build quality.

Ford Mustang Mach-E: The first proper electric Ford delivers a very decent range and generous kit inside, while also living up to its iconic name from the driving point of view.

Strategy two

For: Your plan makes sense: waiting improves your buying options as more alternatives in more classes come onto the market and motor and battery performance improves. We’re moving into an era where performance and touring range are starting to converge.

However, by delaying your EV purchase, you might be able to take advantage of the recent and continuing fall in battery costs. This has been visible in the way that car makers have recently been fairly easily able to drop prices to maintain their eligibility for the government’s £2500 subsidy on sub-£35,000 EVs, already twice reduced since its introduction in 2011 at £5000 a car.

One way to evaluate whether an EV suits your lifestyle is to use a subscription model, says Hyundai UK president turned independent industry expert Tony Whitehorn: “Companies like Drover, Elmo and Onto enable people to do this with no deposit or long-term commitment.”

Against: You will need fine judgement to predict when exactly the government will stop subsidising EV purchases. Such changes are rarely telegraphed and the number of eligible cars is rising fast. In any case, we would suggest that you make your EV move before the implementation of the Euro 7 emissions standards, which will drive the costs of new petrol and diesel cars even higher. Broadly speaking, we would therefore suggest making an EV commitment around 2025.

Cars to consider

Volkswagen ID 3: The first of Volkswagen’s electric ID family was carefully designed to provide just the kind of car that the Golf faithful will need. Options improve versatility.

Kia e-Niro: This family-sized crossover is the oldest of this trio, yet its size, price and range still really hit the spot. It also comes with a market-leading seven-year warranty.

Audi Q4 E-tron: Audi’s first mainstream EV, built on the Volkswagen Group’s MEB platform and aimed at the masses – or at least those who can stand a price of at least £40,000.

Strategy three

For: In some ways, EVs have the credentials for a natural driver’s car. They tend to be smooth and effortless, they usually have abundant accelerative potential, their major mass is centred between the wheels and very low down and their deployment of torque is very precise. The same goes for their regenerative braking, which is often adjustable. EVs have definitely democratised performance, since with them it’s most keenly felt at low speeds.

Against: Sustained high-speed driving cuts an EV’s range well below the WLTP figure. EVs are heavy, too, so you can’t throw them into corners with the impunity of lighter combustion cars. (If they do slide, all that mass can make it a scary event.) Their wheelbase tends to be long to provide maximum floorpan space to accommodate a battery – an additional curb on agility. Another problem is the lack of engine noise. This can often be synthesised to your liking in a car’s infotainment system, though. (And remember, before you ditch the idea too quickly, that car makers have been ‘tuning’ engine sounds via specially shaped airboxes and bulkhead-mounted ports and amplifiers for decades.) As enthusiastic drivers are likely to use up their energy quicker than others, one fact to consider is charging time, rather than range. The Tesla Model 3 is best today, being able to accept 160 miles’ worth of juice in 10 minutes, but others are much slower. Tomorrow’s solid-state batteries are meant to do much better.

Cars to consider

Jaguar I-Pace: Jaguar insists that this is an SUV, but everything about its performance, driving position and handling says driver’s car. Plenty are available used.

Peugeot e-208: The first serious attempt to blend affordable EV advantages with a sporty character. It has great on-road ability yet also a range exceeding 200 miles.

Porsche Taycan: This performance saloon is the ideal car to show how EVs can be as enjoyable to drive as familiar types. Choose the rear-wheel-drive model, which still goes hard but has more adjustable handling.

Strategy four

For: You will be popular at dealerships for the time being. Dealers will have plenty of stock to suit you, and there are many superb cars on offer. When ICE cars start disappearing in the second half of the decade, your choice will be more restricted, mind. But we have a solution for you: many households have more than one car and not all journeys are optimal, so why not consider a short-haul EV to add convenience for lesser motoring events and keep your Range Rover or Ford Mustang V8 for special occasions? That way it will last longer.

Against: Something that could help as well as hinder you is the arrival of the Euro 7 standards mid-decade. The extra costs and compliance difficulties it brings could quite dramatically cull the number of ICE models on offer and add cost to those that survive. Some car makers might be saddled with Euro 6 stock that will need clearing, making your 2026 car choice cheaper. Another option, according to Tony Whitehorn, will be to buy an exciting used car. “By 2040, there will still be as many ICE cars on the road as EVs,” he says.

Cars to consider

Alpine A110: This is the one recent conventional car that depends very heavily for its excellence on lightness, which is a rare commodity among EVs. It will always be special.

Honda E: This supermini is the kind of EV runabout that even traditionalists can enjoy and that will allow life with our other picks here to be extended for as long as possible.

Ford Mustang: This hugely entertaining old-school classic, with its atmo V8 and manual gearbox, is on borrowed time already and is unlikely to clear the Euro 7 hurdle.

Conclusion

The EV era is definitely coming, and perhaps even sooner than expected if the potentially punitive Euro 7 pollution standards come to pass middecade. We’re all going to be electric car drivers sooner than previously imagined – but that’s no disaster. While EVs and infrastructure improve fast, much of the traffic that we see in 2030 will look familiar, liquid fuel will be plentiful (if pricey), fit used ICE cars will still be around and nobody will force you to sell that Triumph Stag or MGB you have tucked away in your garage. Even so, we’re about to see the biggest, fastest and most expensive change to the carscape in the history of mobility. The trick is to make it work for you.

Big questions answered

Insiders insist that the government has its best brains at work providing answers to the following. We look forward to seeing some evidence of that…

Will petrol and diesel cost more post-2030?

There’s no certainty, but it seems very likely. Neither the government nor the fuel retailers will be interested in making petrol or diesel cheaper when there are fewer customers for it. However, future users are likely to include low-income families, so prices can’t be hiked too far. The exchequer currently receives nearly 60p, plus 20% VAT, from every litre of petrol.

How will the government make up for the fuel tax it will lose in the EV era?

Discussions so far have centred on various forms of tax designed to compensate for the estimated £30 billion decline in tax take by the time EVs predominate. Road pricing has been suggested, as well as a charge on power accessed through roadside chargers, but nothing is decided yet.

Do we know what kind of hybrids will be allowed on sale between 2030 and 2035?

There’s no clear guidance yet, but it seems certain that post-2030 hybrids will need a longer electric-only range than those of today – say 50-70 miles – and will be required to cruise in a selectable zero-emissions mode in cities.