The UK government is expected to significantly downscale its electric vehicle sales targets this week, as car makers fall well short of the previously imposed quotas.
The Guardian and BBC are reporting that Secretary of State Louise Haigh will reveal a new-look Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate in the coming days, with targets that are more closely aligned to real-world EV demand.
Government insiders are said to suggest that the 2030 EV sales target could be reduced from 80% to 60%, and car makers will continue to have access to various flexibilities within the mandate's mechanisms until 2034.
Under the existing framework, car makers must achieve a series of annually increasing EV sales mix targets, on the way to an 80% share by 2030 and a ban on new combustion-engined car sales in 2035.
But those targets have so far proven out of step with organic consumer demand, forcing many manufacturers to heavily subsidise their electric cars – at significant cost – to drive up demand, or pay significant penalties for non-compliance.
Electric cars have ballooned in popularity in recent months, with recent figures showing more than 500,000 had been sold from January to November - a 30% year-on-year increase. That has been driven in part by huge increases in the cost of petrol and diesel, and the greater availability of affordable EVs as manufacturers expand their portfolios downwards.
Nonetheless, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) says car makers will fall far short of achieving the mandated 33% EV mix for 2026, forecasting that just 27.2% cars sold over the whole of this year will be electric.
It says that gap will then widen next year, when the target increases to 38% but EV sales are expected to reach 32% - and then again in 2028, when EV share will be 14.5 percentage points behind the 52% target.
The government has been consulting with car makers over changes to the ZEV mandate in light of the disparity, and SMMT boss Mike Hawes said last week that the outcome of that preview process was urgent.
“Almost one in three new cars registered in October was electric – great progress in the transition, but one that comes at enormous cost. The industry and government are spending billions to help drivers switch, but that support cannot be sustained indefinitely with the gap to mandated targets set to more than double by 2028, just as a new EV-only tax is introduced.
"Higher targets may force supply, but they do not create demand. The ZEV Mandate review must deliver substantive reform effective immediately to ensure we have a healthy market and an attractive pitch to investors.”
The Guardian says Haigh will finalise the plan after a "crunch meeting" on Wednesday to "settle the dispute between the transport, energy and business departments".
Any move to ease the EV transition for car makers will be met with relief from the automotive industry, but will be viewed by many as a weakening of an important component of the UK's decarbonisation policy. If the targets were kept and met, the ZEV mandate was expected to achieve 14% of the government's targeted CO2 reductions between 2028 and 2032.
