We need to talk about China. 

Over the last month, I’ve been speaking to 20 very senior automotive industry leaders and experts about how they think the industry will look in 2040 for a white paper we’re publishing in the New Year.

For context, Ennis & Co celebrated its 15th birthday in 2024 and, given the scale of transformation that has taken place in the company’s lifetime, we thought it would be a useful horizon-scanning exercise to look ahead to the next 15 years.

Related articles

Our discussions touched on all aspects of the industry – including technology, consolidation, globalisation, brand and leadership – but one subject united the experts more than any other.

That China will supersede Germany as the principal player in the global automotive industry was beyond debate, given that the entire supply chain is integrated into their businesses, from mining to refining to battery manufacturing. 

The commercial advantage of the Chinese OEMs on raw materials, margins, pricing and capability is so huge that their dominance of the global EV market is inevitable, with only Tesla able to give them a run for their money.  

As one of our expert witnesses said, customers want products that are high-quality, reliable and affordable, and that is exactly what Chinese vehicles deliver. 

So, what does this mean for the European legacy brands, and what can be done to repel what could even be an existential threat?

Tariffs are a double-edged sword and not the preferred approach of industry executives and the general feeling is that governments will not be able to raise them high enough to keep the Chinese brands out. 

Two of our senior experts – one from retail, the other a mobility and energy specialist – came to the same conclusion that ‘if you can’t beat them, join them’, advocating that European OEMs need to start thinking about entering into joint ventures in Europe with their Chinese counterparts in a reversal of the JVs that western brands signed in China from the early ‘80s onwards.  

As an executive search specialist, I am particularly interested in the impact increasing Chinese dominance will have on working culture and career progression in the industry, because it’s clear that anyone from the West who aspires to a senior leadership position will have to spend some time in Beijing or Shanghai – and longer than the traditional three-year posting.