Back in January, we took the foolhardy step of predicting what would happen in the car industry in 2019.
We tried to forecast the key events and trends that would shape the motoring world, covering topics as diverse as the new Land Rover Defender’s styling, Lewis Hamilton’s Formula 1 title chances and – inevitably – Brexit.
With the year winding down, it’s time to look back and see whether our predictions were on the (crystal) ball.
Jaguar Land Rover
The long-awaited new Land Rover Defender was launched this year. You may have heard already. It was, after all, one of the biggest reveals of 2019 – and the biggest from JLR for several years.
With the firm set on reinventing the Defender for the modern era, we predicted that “the new Land Rover Defender’s design will make Brexit debates seem mild”. That was true (up to a point): everyone seems to have an opinion on it, from those who think it’s a glorious reinvention to others who insist it’s an unworthy pastiche.
We also suggested the Defender might break our website from sheer number of readers: thankfully, autocar.co.uk stayed functioning on the big day (thanks, tech team), although you did try: the Defender was the most-read-about car of 2019.
We also tipped a comeback for Jaguar Land Rover, reasoning it had a “series of enticing, rule-changing cars to launch this year and next”. Given JLR’s ongoing financial struggles, including having to massively write down its assets, it’s a bit of a stretch to say the comeback is on, but there are signs of recovery. It is investing in new models, and the likes of the bold new electric-only Jaguar XJ show there are some exciting innovations, too.
The UK industry
“Will 2019 be the year that a major car plant shuts in the UK?” There’s no prediction about which we would rather have been wrong, but Honda announced plans to close its Swindon factory, while Ford is shutting its Bridgend engine facility.
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There has been a lot of news
There has been a lot of news about Electric cars in 2019, but i see very little evidence of sales. But as so much of the new car market is driven by CoCar tax i am sure 2020 will see far higher sales, as they will have zero CoCar tax from april I believe.
Will anyone get a new TVR in 2020? i hope so, but there isnt any 'news'.
Will PSA's gamble pay off for Vauxhall? The new Corsa is MUCH more expensive than the outgoing car, and wont offer the 3 door body style, that to my guess accounts for 30% plus of the cars i see on the road. Will these people just buy a Fiesta instead?
2020 will be the first proper tests of the new Defender. Will the car Autocar gets their hands on first top £100k? I wouldnt bet against it. However i suspect JLR have a big success on their hands although most cars sold will be much cheaper. I doubt many who like the old car will be buying one though!
2020 will see car prices increase far faster than peoples earnings as complex expensive stuff is added to keep official CO2 numbers down. More desirable cars (with higher CO2 numbers) will be withdrawn or have their sales limited. Sales of new cars will continue to fall. The SMMT will continue to blame Brexit.
Will there be any good news for those of us who like cars in 2020? The GR Yaris sounds promising. The first RHD Corvette might get here before the end of the year. I hope that there is more to look forward to than just those 2
Why contradict your original
TVR prediction
I'll be amazed if a TVR customer takes delivery in 2020. The successful recipe of the 90's, 911 performance for Boxster money in a stunning body, with a unique interior seems to be entirely forgotten, and I wonder how many of these delays are down to lack of demand.