The current UK government is proving one of most automotive-friendly in years, winning plaudits from the industry for its successful haggling over US tariffs, loosening of the ZEV mandate without a disruptive rewrite, and now for a new industrial strategy that puts automotive right at its heart.
One of the hopes the government expressed within the strategy document is that UK vehicle manufacturing output can climb again, from a paltry 905,233 cars, vans, trucks and buses last year to 1.3 million by 2035.
Given UK production peaked at 1.81 million vehicles as recently as 2016, that doesn’t seem too hard to achieve.
However, the world is a very different place now. We’ve lost two key manufacturing plants in Swindon and Luton and the UK has some unique challenges to overcome. The industrial strategy sets out to do exactly that, but how successful will it be?
For a start, the 1.3 million production target is above even the most bullish hope of research company AutoAnalysis, which supplies automotive body the SMMT with its forecasts. It sets out a 1.1 million figure by 2029 in its most ‘optimistic’ scenario.
“There’s a lot of spinning plates,” Ian Henry, head of AutoAnalysis, told Autocar. “Based on notional capacity, the UK could still theoretically produce 1.3 million vehicles with everybody running at full tilt, but that’s unlikely to happen. You’re going to need a new investor, and that probably means a Chinese car company.”
So the task is to make the UK attractive enough to firstly persuade the likes of Toyota, BMW, Nissan, JLR and Stellantis not to follow Honda out of the door, and secondly to attract another big player.
That is tricky, to say the least. The chief competition comes from low-cost countries such as Hungary – the European leader in attracting Chinese investment from the likes of battery maker CATL and BYD.
So cost is the number one priority, and first on the list is tackling our sky-high industrial energy prices. Which, as the government pointed out in its strategy document, are twice the European average. “This issue is one of the most pronounced challenges to the competitiveness of our energy-intensive sectors and the attractiveness of the UK to foreign investment,” the document stated.
That’s mainly because UK prices are pegged to gas, which shot up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, undoing the hard work of cheaper renewables.
Add your comment