Currently reading: Renault says the EU needs its own ZEV mandate

Legislators must force gradual ramp-up in EV sales else face a "cliff-edge" scenario

The EU needs its own version of the UK’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate to avoid a "cliff-edge" scenario in 2030 when the CO2 emissions rules tighten significantly, Renault has said.

Unlike the UK's graduated system, the EU demands an abrupt improvement in 2030 that drops the required average CO2 for each car maker from 94g/km to 50g/km. 

“It is impossible: no OEM can do it,” Renault Group CEO François Provost told Autocar on the sidelines of the Twingo EV launch on 7 November.

Under the ZEV mandate, UK car makers have to hit an EV sales target that increases annually from 28% this year to 80% in 2030. 

Various flexibilities, including CO2 savings from plug-in hybrid and hybrid sales and borrowing from future sales, help to reduce that target. It has been calculated at 22% for Renault this year by green transport group New Automotive.

Renault is eyeing something similar for the EU – an idea it says is backed by the European automotive industry body, ACEA.

“We need the EU to help us smooth the trajectory,” Renault brand CEO Fabrice Cambolive said. “You did that in the UK.”

Car makers have gone through a similar step this year in the EU after legislation forced them to jump from a CO2 average of 115g/km to 94g/km. This has forced a raft of EV launches and a pivot to hybrid drivetrains, along with discounts needed to persuade customers to make the shift.

Car makers in the EU can now theoretically relax until 2030, but Cambolive warned that the huge step brings its own problems, including lower residual values for new cars, because the jump doesn’t match the cadence of change among customers.

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Renault’s pitch to the European legislators is a gradual shift to the new level between the years 2028 and 2032 in order to cope this “huge one shot” decrease of CO2, Provost said. “For me, this is urgency,” he added.

Manufacturers have risen to the challenge of UK’s ZEV mandate. Many, including the Volkswagen Group, BMW and Renault have already amassed surplus credits this year, according to analysis by New Automotive.

The biggest laggard so far this year is Stellantis, according to the data, with a credit deficit of 14,062, followed by Nissan at 13,012. Each EV sale equals one credit.

The UK government introduced more flexibilities to the system earlier this year, in part to help those UK-based manufacturers (including Toyota and JLR) that are behind on their targets.

Changes included expanding the ‘banking and borrowing’ feature, which allows car makers to borrow against future overperformance and ‘bank’ or roll over existing surpluses.

However, the changes risking creating the UK’s own impossible step-up in 2030, when the flexibilities reset, according to green pressure group Transport & Environment.

“These flexibilities risk a severe compliance cliff edge by the end of the decade, setting manufacturers up for failure,” it wrote in August, warning that some car makers might need a 100% EV mix in 2030 to pay back borrowed credits.

The EU, as with the UK, requires 100% zero-emission car sales by 2035, but car makers including Renault are angling for legislators to include plug-in hybrids or range-extender EVs in the mix.

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