Car makers in the UK are expected to hit their zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate targets in 2024 after new model launches and a record September pushed the industry out of the danger zone, according to the latest analysis of sales figures.
Monthly sales of EVs broke past 50,000 in September for only the second time, led by the Tesla Model Y, to account for a fifth of the market, according to figures published by automotive body the SMMT. EV sales grew 24% to reach 56,387, equivalent to a 20% market share. The record EV sales month was March 2022, with 52,200 sold.
The increase pushed the annual EV share up to 18%, its highest level yet.
Under VETS (the Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme), more popularly known as the ZEV mandate, carmakers must sell enough EVs to reach 22% of the overall target, but flexibilities in the scheme mean the actual target more like 18%, according to EV-focused analyst firm New AutoMotive.
Carmakers are on course to hit this lower target. “The industry now has a surplus of credits,” Ben Nelmes, CEO of New AutoMotive, said in his company’s analysis of UK figures to the end of September.
There was even some evidence that some companies were slowing down the pace of EV sales after comfortably achieving their targets. BMW EV sales for example were down almost a third compared to the same month the year before, while those for MG were down 9%.
Typically EV sales are lower margin than those of combustion engine models, providing an incentive not to exceed targets. Many carmakers are in the midst of model changeovers or launches ahead the European Union’s big squeeze on CO2 emissions in 2025. According to Renault, the change will force carmakers to sell similar percentages of EVs as the UK requires.
New EV launches generated around 5,000 of the nearly 8,000 jump on EV sales in September compared to March, the other big sales month of the year.
The Volvo EX30 and Peugeot e-3008 made the biggest impact, hitting 7th and 8th in the electric chart for the month with sales of 1670 and 1660 respectively. Also helping their brands in terms of EV share were the Ford Explorer, Polestar 4, Renault Scenic and VW ID 7.
Many carmakers were significantly below their EV target after the first six months and risking fines, account to Autocar analysis.
Many have since improved, with Ford EV sales for example jumping from 4% of the company total to 8.6%.
However, Ford is still a way off meeting the 17.4% EV target NewAutomotive has calculated it needs need to hit with flexibilities taken into account, for example by cutting CO2 averages by selling more plug-in hybrids.
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