Prospects for electric car sales look gloomy in the US after president Donald Trump’s government killed purchase incentives and ripped up legislation forcing ca rmakers to improve their average fuel consumption. But does that mean EVs are dead over there?
The recent push by car makers to launch more EVs in the US is definitely going into reverse, believes General Motors. “I would be surprised if there aren't fewer EV retailers or EV sellers in the next four to five years,” its CFO, Paul Jacobson, told the JP Morgan Auto Conference on 13 August.
GM is currently the second largest EV seller in the US, after Tesla, but Jacobson warned investors that it would take the company longer for its EV business to become profitable as demand faded. Meanwhile, the company is “investing pretty heavily in our ICE portfolio,” he said.
American EV demand should be showing a spike ahead of the 30 September ending of the $7500 federal tax credit for new electric cars, and sales were up 4.6% in June, figures from S&P Global Mobility reported by Automotive News show. However, EVs' market share was actually down, at 8.6% in the month compared with 8.8% a year before.
By contrast, in the EU, where car makers are still very much guided by legislation to reduce CO2 emissions, the EV share stood at 16% for the first half of the year, according to figures from lobby group the ACEA, up from 12% in the first six months of 2024.
In the US, EV sales are still dominated by Tesla, which accounted for half of all June sales, despite a drop in numbers in the face of strong growth from the likes of GM, Honda and Jeep, according to the S&P figures.
Tesla now has a problem, however. The company relied on emissions credits for much of its income, but the three months to the end of June showed that such income halved to $439 million.
Trump’s 'Big Beautiful Bill', which reduced the penalties for car makers busting the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) limits will “impact our total revenues going forward,” said Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja on the company’s second-quarter call.
Essentially it means those selling ICE vehicles now don’t need to worry about buying credits from Tesla or anyone else if they fall short. So Tesla loses twice, the first being the loss of the $7500 government incentive on EVs costing less than $55,000 (or $80,000 for SUVs and pick-up trucks).
Tesla CEO Elon Musk was downbeat on the call. “We're in this weird transition period where we will lose a lot of incentives in the US. We probably could have a few rough quarters,” he said.
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