Industry giant Cox Automotive predicts the UK new car market will exceed two million registrations in 2024.
The firm, which owns a suite of automotive companies including Manheim Auctions, has forecast a ‘baseline’ (most likely) registration figure of 2.06m, along with potential ‘downside’ (worst case) and ‘upside’ (best case) estimates of 1.93m and 2.20m units.
The baseline figure would leave 2024 registrations up 8.3% year on year. Downside and upside scenarios would herald increases of either 1.2% or 15.8%.
The baseline estimate is more optimistic than the SMMT’s most recent 2024 new car sales forecast, published on 5 February, of 1.974m registrations – a 3.8% increase.
Irrespective of the final figure, Cox expects the strongest growth in the third quarter (July to September), anticipating a rise of 15% to 577,000 units in its baseline scenario, with 7% (497,000) and 25.6% (630,000) for the downside and the upside.
The company also predicts a strong second quarter (April to June), with registrations up 9.3% to 497,000 units (baseline). Upside and downside estimates would see it rise by 19% to 542,000 units or level with 2023 at 455,000.
In each scenario, the final quarter is expected to be the year’s weakest, with a year-on-year drop in registrations in two out of three cases. Baseline would see a fall of 2.4% to 440,000 units, downside a drop of 14.6% to 385,000 and upside a 7.4% rise to 484,000.
Cox has revised its forecast upwards in the wake of the new car market’s 10.4% leap in quarter one, which it described as “not to be sniffed at”. According to its latest Insight Quarterly report, the baseline figures anticipate “sustained demand” for cars from the fleet sector alongside continually low interest from private buyers.
“Inflation and interest rates are expected to ease at a slower pace than initially forecast, adding to uncertainty surrounding living costs and energy prices,” the report added. “Consequently, consumer confidence remains low. Despite these hurdles, a gradual improvement in consumer confidence is anticipated.”
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